If you have been following this for a while, you might have noticed the pattern: I have a tendency of “thinking out loud” with my posts (i.e., it’s not by chance that I call the sort of free-willing audio version as such), so they often are representing stuff I am thinking and/or going through.
I like the idea of planning as investment, and have been writing about it for a while myself.
I liked how you introduced the idea of "planning" as "making a bet". That's useful for my own thinking.
But what I don't understand is the use of Monte Carlo.
Assuming you define how much you are willing to invest into something (the bet), then the Monte Carlo does add much value anymore. Or am I missing something in your argument?
Thanks for the comment, Vasco. Using Monte Carlo is not a requirement. It’s my preference to bring some more statistical soundness to the approach, and make the betting units more down to earth and bring about a probabilistic aspect. I hope that helps! Cheers.
I like the idea of planning as investment, and have been writing about it for a while myself.
I liked how you introduced the idea of "planning" as "making a bet". That's useful for my own thinking.
But what I don't understand is the use of Monte Carlo.
Assuming you define how much you are willing to invest into something (the bet), then the Monte Carlo does add much value anymore. Or am I missing something in your argument?
Thanks for the comment, Vasco. Using Monte Carlo is not a requirement. It’s my preference to bring some more statistical soundness to the approach, and make the betting units more down to earth and bring about a probabilistic aspect. I hope that helps! Cheers.