We might be seen the end of an era of Jürgen Klopp at the command of Liverpool FC, with struggle to deliver similar level of performance this season. Don’t worry – I am not getting crazy. This is a deliberate repetition of how I finished the first paragraph of the previous post because I am going be using this example to take a dive with follow up point on how to go about changes, and why does that matter.
Were you at the table that makes that kind of decision at Liverpool FC, what would be your position? Should Jürgen Klopp be counting his days at the commanding of the professional male squad of the club or not? The answer to that must be achieved in the least emotionally driven manner possible. It is not about whether we like him or not, as a coach.
If I managed to bring any point across from my thinking so far, I guess you are expecting of what I am about to say…
It depends…
But not as in I am not sure what to do. Rather as in I am not sure what is the context, and how decision makers are assessing it.
To be clear, I am not planning to leave you at this. Let me then walk you through how I would systematically go about some scenarios and implications using the case as a simple example.
The first thing is to orient ourselves on the key constraints at play (as far as I can tell):
· We should assume we are in a system which is inherently complex (more like an ecosystem, like in we being only humans…).
And therefore…
· Any change will have unintended consequences (for the good or for the bad).
· And the impact of the consequences can be of a disproportionate order of magnitude (i.e., what may appear to be the smallest of changes can trigger consequences of much bigger perceived impact – again, for the good or for the bad).
The corollary being that any change added to the system will have characteristics of bets (or probabilistic nature)… What are you willing to bet on and by how much? – it’s the key question…
Change of Head Coach? Pretty big bet, hun?! Don’t you think?
But sometimes is needed and can be the right thing to do, in context. Although we still can’t quite be sure to which extent the success of the measure is not just random and cheer luck afterwards, and that is just how reality is.
Because I am not a gambler, I would tend not to go for it. And would typically look first to adjustments, changes of much more incremental nature. Maybe it is time for some experimentation… Move some pieces around, give chances to others in the squad not regularly in first line, consider another tactical system… So many options which can be trained and tested without causing that much of disruption, in principle.
Unless the very assessment of the context has signs that the system got somehow stuck on its own rules and perception of order… What we intuitively refer to as comfort zone. And precisely the deliberate thing you want to do is to put things in a bit of chaos for now, act, sense and respond to that, hopefully achieving a new state of manageable complexity under a new leader.
Are you willing to bet on that and by that much?! I don’t think I am even close to that yet…
And this is what you should always keep in mind as you make sense so that you act and go about changes, in a form of some useful sort of ‘prompts’:
Whenever there is likely a lot you don’t know or control (and remember that human systems are inherently complex), favour incremental changes, or ‘nudging’ the system.
If not, be aware of unintended consequences and their possible disproportionate impact, and how high the risk your bet can have.
And at the end of the day, whatever you do, be deliberate about it.
Now, if you are not a bit of a gambler yourself, and as such don’t want to be too much at mercy of luck; what still remains is how could we figure out what does ‘incremental’ mean in context, or put in other words, how can we ‘nudge’ the system without incurring reckless risks?!
Still intrigued?... Then keep an eye on this, subscribe, engage – I will surely like to “hear” your thoughts or just “hear” your feedback on what I am doing here.
by Rodrigo Sperb, feel free to connect (I only refuse invites from people clearly with an agenda to ‘coldly’ sell something to me), happy to engage and interact.