Eurocup and our work: reflections and ramblings
Full disclosure: I'm fully aware that by doing this I'm risking falling into the cliché of using the latest sports or whatever is dominating media and projecting something in connection to work. But I can't help it, since I'm spending quite some time watching the games (Eurocup football/soccer matches).
So, the idea here is to take some of the matches that have happened (1st round of group stage) and see what kind of connections to what we experience in working with products are there. It may feel slightly loose and all over the place, hopefully with useful insights.
Germany (5) vs (1) Scotland was a good reminder that sometimes what we think will happen does end up happening. Yes, not always there's uncertainty; not always we are wrong. And sometimes is a slam dunk…
Spain (3) vs (0) Croatia was a more nuanced version of the former, whereas we expected more of a close call (with a possibility of not even going in the direction we thought upfront) than it was in the end. Not always the uncertainty we expect or assume will be against us.
Italy (2) vs (1) Albania was perhaps the best match so far (in my opinion), at least for those who enjoy an underdog story… Sometimes we can try as hard as we can but the uphill battle is just too much. Just like when we keep fighting against reality as it imposes in front of us, and are not enough aware of diminished returns.
Poland (1) vs (2) Netherlands was a reminder that starting with a setback and having problems setting things straight (as expected) shouldn't discourage you. Chances are that things will move in the right direction at some point, hopefully soon enough.
Belgium (0) vs (1) Slovakia is so far the biggest surprise result (in my opinion; granted that I'm somewhat biased by living in Belgium for quite some time)... And the reflection is that there will just be moments where nothing seems to work out in the way you thought should… It doesn't matter much how much you try and try again. Not every loss is out of lack of skills or competency – there truly is something to say about sheer luck, both ways by the way (you can win or lose out of luck only).
Speaking about sheer luck, Portugal (2) vs (1) Czechia had the Eastern European team score first at the first and only shot they had. But the relentless and tenacious pursuit of the goal, with the quality of skills and the options coming from the bench, with a pinch of luck (the guy had literally just entered the field a minute or two before) prevailed in the end. It is interesting how it was almost the opposite of Belgium's game.
This all made me remember one of the biggest insights from Annie Duke's "Thinking Bets":
Winning or losing is not as easy as competence vs incompetence, or luck vs unluck only; quite often a complex mix of both.
The point really is that the only shot we often have to not just be subject to (un)luck only is to invest in our skills and be competent. As Louis Pasteur famously pointed out:
"... chance favors the prepared mind."
And one of the key ways (something that Annie Duke also points out in her previously referred book) to be prepared is to learn to sufficiently unbias your assessment of the winning / losing and skill / luck interplay. Our natural bias tends to positively attribute winning to our competence, and negatively losing as misfortune.
By Rodrigo Sperb, feel free to connect, I'm happy to engage and interact. If I can be of further utility to you or your organization in getting better at working with product development, I am available for part-time advisory, consulting or contract-based engagements.